Texas Rangers blog

The Texas Rangers blog has moved

2005-04-13T20:13:00.000-07:00

As I've been hinting at, after roughly 18 months of blogging at this site, the Texas Rangers blog is moving to new digs.

Please come join us at the new site, LoneStarBall.com.

Verducci Q&A

2005-04-13T13:52:00.000-07:00

SI's Tom Verducci's mailbag column this week includes a Ranger question...

Can someone please explain to me why the Texas Rangers continue to bat Alfonso Soriano leadoff? This makes no sense. He'll be lucky to have an OBP of .300. His speed was the only attribute that fits the lead-off mold, yet he won't run because of his hamstring.
-- Paul Macaluso, Longview, Texas

I wish I could give you a reason I believe in the move, but I'm not sold on it, either. The explanation I got from them in Spring Training was that his OBP is less of an issue when he's hitting 50 doubles and 30 homers. In other words, he's getting into scoring position as much as a singles-hitting guy with a .360 OBP. (Their thinking, not mine.) I guess Michael Young is their best leadoff guy, but he's a very good situational hitter and they like him hitting with runners on. I still expect Soriano to be traded for pitching help by the end of the season.

I think Verducci is spot-on there. Batting Soriano in the leadoff spot -- where his lack of OBP is magnified, and the value of his power is minimized -- makes no sense to me, either. I think the other reason behind the move, though, that Verducci doesn't mention is that Soriano apparently feels more comfortable hitting in the leadoff spot than the third slot.

I'd rather see Soriano hitting fifth or sixth, personally, but as Verducci points out, there is no true leadoff hitter on the team. And like Verducci, I expect Soriano to be dealt -- whether for pitching, or for something else -- before season's end.

Indians sign Hafner to multi-year deal

2005-04-13T13:23:00.000-07:00

The Cleveland Indians have signed Travis Hafner to a 3 year, $7 million contract with a fourth year option for $4.75 million, or a $250,000 buyout.

While Joe Sheehan's article today cautions teams against signing every arb-eligible player to a long-term deal -- and specifically identifies Travis Hafner as a player to avoid locking up -- I think this is a very nice deal for the Indians.

The Indians are committing $6.65 million to Hafner, above and beyond the $377,400 he was already scheduled to make this season. They've bought out two arbitration years for less than he was likely to make in arbitration if he came anywhere in the vicinity of his MVP-caliber performance last year, and can keep him for the 2008 season for just $4.75 million, again, a number that could end up being a very nice bargain.

The format change and new URL

2005-04-13T11:04:00.000-07:00

The format change and new URL for the blog should be in place within the next couple of days.

To reiterate, though, content should be the same -- I'll be just as angry when I'm angry, just as happy when I'm happy, and won't hesitate to share either emotion -- with just some changes in the template, logo and some features that I'll be able to offer all you folks out there who follow the blog, along with a dedicated URL.

I will share more once the new site is up and running, but if you want a hint about what's going on, you can check out this article...

Nick Regilio called up

2005-04-13T10:32:00.000-07:00

Nick Regilio has reportedly been called up to take the place of R.A. Dickey, who is going on the D.L.

Normally, once he is optioned, a player has to spend at least 10 days in the minors, and Regilio has only been down a week. However, if the player being recalled is replacing a player on the major league roster who has been placed on the disabled list, the 10 day rule does not apply.

Update on the pitching situation

2005-04-13T08:28:00.000-07:00

The DMN is reporting that R.A. Dickey is heading for the d.l., supposedly to make room for Carlos Almanzar.

Since Almanzar isn't going to be activated until tomorrow, I'm not sure that the exchange will actually happen that way. The DMN also says that another move, involving Ryan Bukvich, could also be imminent, since Bukvich has options remaining and the bullpen is short-handed. The Rangers could d.l. Dickey and call up someone today, and then send Bukvich down tomorrow, with Almanzar being activated to take his place.

Dickey and Almanzar update

2005-04-12T21:10:00.000-07:00

The initial word on R.A. Dickey is that he has a "lat strain," and will have an MRI tomorrow.

My guess is that he goes on the d.l., with Nick Regilio taking his place tomorrow.

Additionally, Victor Rojas says that Almanzar pitched at the Rangers' Dominican academy, will be returning to the team on Thursday, and will be immediately activated.

At that point, the Rangers could either send Chris Young down to make room for Almanzar, with Ricardo Rodriguez being called up, as discussed below, on Sunday to take Young's spot in the rotation, or Bukvich or Regilio could be sent down.

Dickey probably to the d.l.

2005-04-12T20:32:00.000-07:00

Well, R.A. Dickey apparently just hurt himself throwing a pitch in the top of the 9th, grabbing his arm in pain and leaving the game.

So I'm guessing the team will go ahead and put him on the d.l. tomorrow, simplifying the situation in terms of getting a fresh arm up to Texas.

I'd guess Dickey to the d.l., Young to the minors, Almanzar off the bereavement list, and Regilio back up.

Then, when this spot in the rotation rolls back around, Regilio will go back down, RicRod will come up. Sometime around then, Francisco will be activated, and Bukvich will go back down then.

This is brutal

2005-04-12T19:49:00.000-07:00

Now 12-3, Angels.

The radio broadcast hinted that moves could be coming tomorrow with the pitching staff, something that wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I'm guessing Young gets sent down to AAA, with Almanzar activated tomorrow. And I wouldn't be shocked if Frankie Francisco were activated ahead of schedule, with either Dickey or Bukvich going back down, as well.

Dickey has been one of Showalter's pets since Buck got here, a guy Buck has loved because of his perseverence, his character, his heart...all those intangibles that Buck loves so much.

But the guy can't pitch. And at some point, Showalter needs to face facts and move on.

Mench benched again tonight

2005-04-12T16:19:00.000-07:00

With Paul Byrd going for the Angels, Buck Showalter has apparently decided that Kevin Mench isn't up for the challenge of facing such a tough righthander, and has benched him, with David Dellucci starting in left field.

I've got to say, I am feeling a bit silly now...I actually believed, coming into the season, that Mench and Gonzalez were going to be everyday players. It appears, though, that Buck is committed to getting Dellucci and Allen lots of ABs, which are going to come at the expense of those two players...

Bullpen reinforcements update

2005-04-12T14:49:00.000-07:00

Frankie Francisco is starting a rehab assignment at AA Frisco tonight. He is supposed to start tonight's game for the RoughRiders, but will likely just go an inning or two before giving way to John Hudgins. Word is the Rangers want him to go in back-to-back outings for Frisco before activating him from the D.L.

Carlos Almanzar, meanwhile, is expected to re-join the team on Wednesday. That would make him likely to be activated on Thursday or Friday, with Ryan Bukvich most likely being sent down to make room for him.

Separated at birth

2005-04-12T08:29:00.000-07:00

Marlin pitching prospect Scott Olson...

And Young Gun Lou Diamond Phillips...

Some minor leaguers

2005-04-11T19:56:00.000-07:00

A few random notes about some minor leaguers...

There was some question about whether Nick Regilio would work as a starter or as a middle reliever when he was sent down to AAA. Well, he's pitching in relief of John Wasdin tonight, suggesting that the team is looking at him more as a reliever than as a starter down the road.

The fact that John Wasdin and Jason Standridge are in the Oklahoma rotation makes it that much more inexplicable that John Hudgins has been sent back to AA.

Laynce Nix and Gerald Laird seem to have hit the ground running in Oklahoma, alleviating somewhat the concerns that they'd take their unhappiness about their demotions on the field. Through tonight's game, Laird is hitting .286 in his first three games back in AAA, and Nix is hitting .333, and each has a homer.

Joaquin Arias (.444/.500/.611) has carried his spring hot streak over to the regular season.

Mike Nickeas, on the other hand, is 0 for 13 with 8 strikeouts to start the season at Frisco. He was being jumped from short season-A to AA, a three level leap, and I wondered at the time if the organization wasn't pushing him too rapidly. This suggests that he might be a bit over his head...

Fun with numbers, after a week's worth of games...

2005-04-11T19:35:00.000-07:00

Seven games into the 2005 season...

1 -- The number of games starting left fielder Kevin Mench and starting DH Adrian Gonzalez have both appeared in. A troubling sign, for those of us who'd like to see more Mench and Gonzalez and less Chad Allen and David Dellucci

2 -- Blown saves for Francisco Cordero. He didn't have his second blown save in 2004 until June 20.

3 -- RBIs for Sandy Alomar Jr. on April 9 against the Mariners, matching the total he had last season from the first day of summer through season's end.

4 -- Average number of relievers used, per game, so far this season by the Rangers. Actually, I'm cheating...they've averaged 4.57 per game...

5 -- The number of homers off of lefties by Hank Blalock last season. He has 2 already this season, while posting a 1065 OPS.

6 -- Walks by David Dellucci, against 0 strikeouts, in 14 plate appearances so far this season.

7 -- The number of games into the season we are, less than 5% of the total. There's still a long, long way to go...

The Return of Darren Oliver (not to TBIA, thankfully)

2005-04-11T18:15:00.000-07:00

The Transaction Oracle notes that the D-Backs have signed Darren Oliver, and he's expected to join the starting rotation.

I was talking about how bad the Mariners' rotation is without Pineiro and Madritsch, but the D-Backs apparently will be trotting out Javier Vazquez (who appears to be following the Mario Soto career path), overpaid innings-eater Russ Ortiz, Shawn Estes, and Darren Oliver. If it weren't for Brandon Webb, D-Backs fans would be staring at a rotation that is both veterany and awful, a rare exacta in this day and age...

Ben Kozlowski update

2005-04-11T15:45:00.000-07:00

Kozlowski gave up 0 runs on 3 hits and a walk, striking out 4 in 5 innings, in his debut for the Reds' AA affiliate this past weekend.

Kozlowski, of course, was the Rangers' top pitching prospect after 2002, then missed most of 2003 and 2004 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Despite the fact that Kozlowski had showed very good stuff before his injury, despite the fact that the recovery rate for pitchers with T-J surgery is extremely high, and despite the fact that pitchers generally don't get back to 100% after T-J surgery for 18 months -- which, for Koz, was around December -- the team cut him loose this winter, in order to make room for the Agustin Monteros, Travis Hugheses, and Ruddy Yans that clogged up the 40 man roster this offseason.

I'll reiterate...waiving Kozlowski is going to come back and bite the Rangers...

Hank's Homers

2005-04-11T12:46:00.000-07:00

Something to note...

Both of Hank Blalock's homers this season have been off of lefties...

Obviously, it is very early, but it is a nice sign from a guy whose ability to hit -- particularly for power -- against lefties has been questioned...

Laird and Nix

2005-04-11T11:38:00.000-07:00

Both homered last night for the Redhawks, Laird to tie the game in the top of the 9th, Nix to win the game in the top of the 11th.

Nice to see...hopefully, they'll be doing that for the big club before too long...

Madritsch to the D.L.

2005-04-11T09:48:00.000-07:00

Mariner starting pitcher Bobby Madritsch has gone on the D.L. with a strained left shoulder. Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll is reporting that Madritsch will need season-ending shoulder surgery.

If Carroll is right, that's a big blow to the M's, who are likely to be fighting it out with the Rangers for third place in the A.L. West. While the Mariners have a reputation for having a strong, deep pitching staff, in reality, injuries and age have devastated the Mariner rotation. To start the season, they were looking at a rotation of Moyer, Pineiro, Madritsch, Meche, and probably the washed-up Aaron Sele. Pineiro is on the d.l. to start the season, though, and with Madritsch going down, that means that Sele is the #3 starter, with Ryan Franklin and Ron Villone taking the #4 and #5 spots. Moyer and Meche have warts on them, as well -- Moyer is 42 and coming off a terrible season, while Meche is coming off a bad season and has never recaptured the ability that he flashed in 1999 and 2000, before he hurt his shoulder.

With Travis Blackley done for the year with shoulder problems and Clint Nageotte also on the shelf, the Mariners' options in the minors are very few. Felix Hernandez is their best pitching prospect -- and arguably the best pitching prospect in the game -- but he's still just 19, much younger than you'd prefer for a pitcher being thrust into the starting rotation. They could turn to King Felix, but even as great as he looks to be, if Madritsch is gone for the year, that rotation is a mess.

Mench sitting again today

2005-04-10T12:54:00.000-07:00

With righty Gil Meche pitching today, the Rangers are going with Adrian Gonzalez at DH and David Dellucci in left field, with Kevin Mench on the bench.

There was some question as to how the outfield/DH mix would shake out, with six players for four slots. I (and others) thought Dellucci would be the odd man out. But instead, through six games, Matthews and Hidalgo have started every game, Mench has started four, Dellucci and Gonzalez have started three apiece, and Chad Allen has started two.

Gonzalez making the team instead of Colbrunn may end up costing Mench some starts, as Buck appears to be willing to let Mench sit to get Dellucci some more ABs. This is unfortunate, if it continues.

Mench sitting instead of Matthews is also somewhat odd...with Drese, the extreme sinkerballer, on the mound, this would seem to be the spot in the rotation where you'd give Matthews a day off, particularly since Matthews has been awful at the plate thusfar. But he's out there again, suggesting that, with no "true" backup centerfielder on the roster, Matthews is going to have to play the ironman out there.

A few thoughts on last night's game...

2005-04-10T11:04:00.000-07:00

1) That Hidalgo shot was huge. It is early, but Hidalgo v.2005 is looking a lot like the "Good Hidalgo" so far, the one that is an All-Star caliber right fielder. If we have that version all season, it is going to make a huge difference in the offense.

2) That Blalock shot looked very familiar. When Blalock is going well, it seems like he hits a lot of those high, arcing shots that are yanked down the right field line, and that land about 10-15 rows up in the rightfield bleachers. Blalock has shown good patience at the plate, with an OBP close to .400, and has shown some power, but his average is still just sitting at .200. Hopefully, that is going to get him back on track.

3) I still don't think Astacio should be on the team, but a few more starts like that, and I'll be eating my words. Great outing for him yesterday, although he (understandably) tired around the 90 pitch mark. I'm not sold on him yet, but I'm pulling for him to prove me wrong and continue pitching like that through the summer.

4) Teixeira looks awful right now. He started off slowly last year, as well, so hopefully he's just one of those guys like Lance Berkman who takes a little time to get into his groove. But Teixeira is the best player on the team, and the Rangers are going to struggle if he doesn't get it in gear.

5) Two huge mental errors yesterday, that looked like they were going to cost the team the game. Soriano got alligator arms on Shouse's throw in the 8th, which is what caused the error. Yeah, it wasn't a good throw by Shouse, but he has to cross over the bag and make the catch. Bad play by Soriano, and emblematic of the complaints that he has poor baseball instincts. The other mistake was by Brocail, in the same inning, when he let Sexson advance to second on the rundown resulting from the comebacker with none out. He did the right thing by running at Jeremy Reed, who was caught between third and home, but he threw the ball too soon, allowing Reed to head home and stay in the rundown long enough to allow the runners to advance to second and third. That allowed an extra run to score on the ensuing single. If Soriano makes the play on the bunt, then the comebacker to Brocail is an inning-ending GIDP, with the Rangers going into the 9th tied at 3. If Brocail makes the right play on the rundown, the Rangers go into the 9th down 5-3. Blalock and Hidalgo ended up saving the day, but those sorts of mental errors are killers, and the sort of thing that I'm sure exasperate Buck.

6) Even after going 3-3, I would have preferred to see either Dellucci or Gonzalez hit for Alomar to lead of the 9th last night.

On Chan Ho Park

2005-04-10T10:05:00.000-07:00

A lengthy piece in the L.A. Times today, on Chan Ho Park and his struggles in Texas since signing that 5 year, $65 million deal.

Park used to pitch in L.A., and the article is much more sympathetic than anything written in the DFW media.

Baseball Primer's Texas Rangers Preview

2005-04-09T21:21:00.000-07:00

Baseball Primer offers their Texas Rangers Preview...

Lengthy piece, a few errors, a lot of things you've heard expressed here before...

Wow...

2005-04-09T16:18:00.000-07:00

This game wore me out.

I need a nap now.

Geez.

Regilio down, Astacio activated

2005-04-09T15:36:00.000-07:00

As expected, to make room for Pedro Astacio on the roster, the Rangers optioned Nick Regilio to AAA.

It will be interesting to see how yesterday's meltdown affects the organization's thoughts on him. As Sam Narron learned last season, you can go from the organizational favorite to waiver-wire fodder with one bad outing, given this management group.

Regilio really didn't pitch that well last year, either, in AAA or the minors, so I have been at a bit of a loss as to how he became such a hot prospect in the organization's mind. He throws hard, which, of course, is the number one priority in Arlington right now, but his control hasn't been good, and there's been no real indication that he's better than the numbers suggest.

I'd keep an eye on Regilio's first few outings in Oklahoma...

Bottom of the 7th, two outs...

2005-04-09T15:19:00.000-07:00

Astacio facing a pinch hitter.

He's tiring, the Mariners are teeing off on him, and he's being left in the game.

This is a mistake.

Astacio needs to be out of the game.

Still more on the Laird and Nix saga

2005-04-09T09:19:00.000-07:00

T.R. Sullivan today updates the Laird and Nix saga, with the two supposedly the victims of a big misunderstanding. The new story:

An equipment delay kept outfielder Laynce Nix and catcher Gerald Laird from playing in the season opener for the Triple A Oklahoma RedHawks on Thursday at Memphis. Nix and Laird reported in plenty of time to Oklahoma after being sent down by the Rangers on Sunday in San Francisco.

The problem was that their equipment was mistakenly sent from San Francisco to Oklahoma City by ground transportation instead of being sent on overnight delivery.

"It's just a matter of when their equipment gets there," Buck Showalter said. "The last thing I worry about is Gerald and Laynce getting ready to play."

Showalter, who spoke with Nix by phone Friday, said neither player did anything wrong.

I don't know that I believe that, but hey, if that's the case, then great...it obviously is a lot better for the players and the team if this is actually the case...

I'm baffled

2005-04-08T22:24:00.000-07:00

Can someone explain to me why, with a one run lead in the 8th, Nick Regilio was in the game?

Doug Brocail had only thrown 13 pitches. Was he too mentally destroyed by the bad call on the 2-2 pitch, that ended up costing the Rangers two runs, to go back out there?

Could Francisco Cordero not have pitched two innings, particularly since the batters coming up in the 8th were a stronger group than those likely to come up in the 9th?

I don't get it...

Another Fuson article

2005-04-08T21:03:00.000-07:00

From a suburban San Diego paper...

According to this piece, Fuson listened to sales pitches from "around 10" teams before getting an offer to join the Padre front office...

Also, on Fuson's tenure in Texas:

Fuson said he felt burned by the situation.

"There was a lot of confusion based on what the owner wanted to do and the things he was telling me and the things that John was telling me," he said. "It kind of blew up."

More on Nix and Laird

2005-04-08T20:47:00.000-07:00

The latest on the Nix/Laird saga...

Nix claims that his equipment, along with Gerald Laird's, hasn't been sent yet to the Redhawks, and that's why they didn't participate in the workouts earlier this week. Laird and Nix both sat again tonight...

Nix, Laird benched for Oklahoma's opener

2005-04-08T07:43:00.000-07:00

Gerald Laird and Laynce Nix were benched for Oklahoma's opener yesterday, apparently because they failed to appear for a couple of workouts earlier this week.

Not a good sign at all...

Rangers have the 22nd highest payroll in baseball

2005-04-07T18:08:00.000-07:00

Embarrassing AP piece in the S-T today, showing that the big-market Rangers have a higher payroll than only 8 major league teams right now.

Among the teams with higher payrolls than Texas are such big-market juggernauts as Oakland, San Diego, Detroit, Minnesota, Florida, and Cincinnati.

Oh, and Houston, in the same state as the Rangers, in a smaller media market, with a less lucrative local media deal, has a payroll that is more than $20 million higher than the Rangers'.

But hey, at least Tom Hicks still has his beloved "financial flexibility"...

Nationals Claim Hughes Off Waivers

2005-04-07T17:59:00.000-07:00

The Washington Nationals have claimed Travis Hughes off of waivers.

A surprising move...I didn't think anyone would put in a waiver claim on Hughes, who is pretty old to be a prospect and hasn't had any success above AA.

But he's been sent to Washington's AAA club, where he'll likely pitch out of the pen. I'm guessing he's back on the waiver wire by the ASB.

Whatever happened to...Bo Jackson?

2005-04-06T21:19:00.000-07:00

Whatever happened to Bo Jackson?

Well, he's suing a newspaper for saying he used steroids.

I have to say, I find it a lot more believeable that Bo was clean, given that he's gone so far as to sue and demand that a retraction be printed.

When Jose Canseco's book came out, with the lurid tales of injecting teammates, I figured that he would get hit with libel suits. None arose. Jackson's, in fact, is the only suit I recall having seen recently around this issue.

The article says that Jackson is a businessman in the Chicago area. He's one of those former players I think about from time to time, and marvel at how they just completely fell off the face of the earth.

I don't think anyone under the age of 25 or so can truly understand the phenomenon that was Bo Jackson. A Heisman Trophy winner, the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, who decides to forego millions in the NFL because he'd rather play baseball. A guy who becomes one of the most dynamic blends of speed and power that baseball has ever seen, one of those rare players who you'd pay to watch strike out, just because he was such a mesmerizing presence. A guy who then decided to play football as a "hobby", who went to the Raiders and was a part-time running back whose flashes of brilliance couldn't help but make you fantasize about how great he would have been if he had been a full-time player, a guy who had the same devastating package on the football field -- speed and power -- as he did on the baseball field. He was a storybook character come to life.

And then, in a 1991 playoff game against the Bengals, Jackson was tackled by linebacker Kevin Walker. That tackle broke Jackson's hip, and ultimately ended his career. Like that, he was gone.

In looking at Jackson's stats at Pro Football Reference, I'm struck by the following lines near the top of the page:

Bo Jackson never finished in the top 10 in any major category.

Bo Jackson is not in the all-time top 50 in any major category.

Both true, of course. He never came close to the top 10 or top 50. But I find it almost offensive, to see those words leaping off the page, as if to minimize or diminish who Bo Jackson was. I feel like I can identify with those old-timers who talk about how, for a few brief moments, Gale Sayers electrified the football world in a way no one has done since. I never saw Sayers, of course...but I watched Bo Jackson, and while his numbers in the NFL are pedestrian -- 515 carries, 2782 yards -- it is simply circumstance that caused that, because he was simply as great a runner as I have ever seen.

His baseball numbers are better, of course, but still not overwhelming. One top-10 finish in slugging, 3 in homers. His baseball reference stat page includes a most comparable player list, and the guys matched up with Jackson are plebian...Ron Kittle, Bob Cerv, Nick Esasky, Dan Pasqua. Twenty years from now, I'm sure someone will flip through those pages, look at Jackson's production, and wonder what all that fuss was about. A guy who, from 1988 through 1990, was right up there with Mike Tyson and Michael Jordan as the most recognized, most captivating, most riveting athletes in the world...but his on-the-field credentials evoke the likes of Kal Daniels and Barry Word (to name a couple of contemporaries), and his career spanned only a half-decade of meaningful play.

Certain players see their legend grow after they depart. Others, for reasons unknown, see their reputations fade over time...Stan Musial, Pistol Pete Maravich, and Eric Dickerson come to mind. Bo Jackson seems to fall in this category, as well...he's someone who has slipped almost entirely out of mind, despite being such an integral part of the zeitgeist of his time, coining a catchphrase ("Bo Knows...") that was as ubiquitous as "Where's the Beef" and "I'm Rick James, Bitch!!!" in their times and being the embodiment, at least for a few years, of the late 20th century athlete, the man for whom there were no limits to what he could achieve.

And to a certain extent, it is reassuring, since Jackson has slipped from the public eye in part because of his desire to do so. If anything, this suit appears to be motivated by Jackson's very desire to protect his good name, to keep the reputation he has guarded so closely since he returned. He isn't hosting "The Best Damn Sports Show, Period", or hocking grills on TV, or auctioning off weekends with himself on Ebay. He's moved on, disappeared from the public eye with dignity and grace, the way Sandy Koufax did, the way Bob Cousy did.

And like every good showman, he left his audience wanting more. And wondering what might have been...

Adrian Gonzalez benched again

2005-04-06T18:26:00.000-07:00

Chad Allen is the starting DH tonight, meaning that Adrian Gonzalez, who supposedly won the starting DH job, has been benched for the first two games of the season.

I just don't get it.

Fever Pitch

2005-04-06T16:48:00.000-07:00

I refuse to watch this movie. Just seeing the ads -- which appear to be run every 3 minutes -- makes me angry.

The book isn't about the stupid Red Sox, it is about Arsenal.

They took a good book, bastardized it by turning into a movie about whiny, narcissistic BoSox fans, and then put freaking Jimmy Fallon in it. Jimmy Fallon, who in the hierarchy of former SNL players is a lot closer to being on the Tim Kazurinsky/Joe Piscopo strata than even the Chris Farley/Rob Schneider strata.

The only way I could imagine this movie being worse is if they had cast Carrot Top as Terry Francona.

And to top it all off, my wife wants to go see it because she thinks she'll identify with the Drew Barrymore character.

Bah.

Opening Night

2005-04-06T09:26:00.000-07:00

Okay, I'm back in town, and have a few quick thoughts on last night's game...

1) Drese's outing was very encouraging.
2) So was Hank Blalock drawing 3 walks.
3) Mark Teixeira is great.
4) Rod Barajas is not good.
5) Why bother carrying anyone who can hit on the bench, if you are going to let Rod Barajas bat against K-Rod, down a run in the 9th?

So we start the season 0-1, which sucks...but we started 0-2 last year, and lost the first game in a much more unpleasant fashion that this year.

A couple of notes

2005-04-03T23:26:00.000-07:00

Evan Grant's DMN article on Nix and Laird being sent down has changed. Laird's quotes show up in Grant's notes article, instead, and are edited so that they are somewhat less inflammatory. Which is good for those who'd like to see Laird back in Texas.

Also, I'm heading out of town -- out of the country, actually -- for my real job tomorrow, so this will probably be the last update between now and the first pitch of Tuesday night's game, unless something big happens tomorrow morning. If all goes well, and my flight back isn't delayed, I'll be back home just in time for the start of the game Tuesday (thank goodness it is a West Coast night game).

But to get a few predictions for the coming season out of the way...

The Rangers will finish 81-81, in third place, behind Anaheim and Oakland.

St. Louis and Boston will return to the World Series, with St. Louis winning in 7.

Barajas will be a bust.

So will Pedro Astacio.

The Ho will be released by June 1.

Laynce Nix will be back in the majors by July 1.

Soriano will be dealt by July 15, and Ian Kinsler will be called up the day Soriano is traded to take over at second base.

Hidalgo will be dealt by August 1.

Mark Teixeira will move to right field to replace Hidalgo, with Gonzalez going to first base and Jason Botts taking over as DH.

Drew Meyer will put himself back on the map as a legitimate prospect.

So will Will Smith.

Mike Young will be referred to as the most underrated player in baseball on Baseball Tonight at least 75 times.

Kevin Mench will do something goofy that pisses off Buck.

Joaquin Benoit will revive his career as a setup man for the Brewers.

Hershiser on the Ranger drafts

2005-04-03T16:13:00.000-07:00

Orel Hershiser was miked and being interviewed by the booth during the Rangers pre-season television broadcast today. These things are usually pretty bland, but Hershiser made a pretty surprising comment when he termed the Rangers last couple of drafts "disappointments", and said that management expected that the drafts would be better going forward.

This is surprising because it seems to be a pretty direct shot at former assistant g.m. and farm director Grady Fuson, who had the amateur draft as his own personal fiefdom from 2002 through 2004. John Hart was reportedly at odds over Fuson's drafting strategy, which emphasized college players and pitchers who could pitch over high school players and high-ceiling hard-throwers, and that apparently led to Hart's insisting that Tom Hicks clip Fuson's wings last summer -- which, of course, led to Fuson's getting fired.

The 2002 draft has been pretty barren, with first rounder Drew Meyer being a bust thusfar, and Fuson's decision to pick him over Khalil Greene (a ROY candidate for the Padres last season) was supposedly a big part of the case Hart & Co. used to organize his ouster. But the 2002 draft was also decimated by Hart's forfeiting four draft choices -- the Rangers' 2nd through 5th rounders -- to sign Chan Ho Park, Juan Gonzalez, Jay Powell, and Todd Van Poppel, in what is one of the biggest collection of free agent disasters ever assembled in one offseason. Meanwhile, later round selections Kam Loe and Erik Thompson have established themselves as legitimate pitching prospects, and Sam Narron was considered a decent prospect before he was senselessly lost to waivers this offseason.

The 2003 draft, meanwhile, was heralded as the second best in baseball that year by Baseball America. It has featured John Danks, Vince Sinisi, John Hudgins, Ian Kinsler, and Matt Lorenzo, among others. And the 2004 draft is looking good already, as well...

So Hershiser's comment is curious, to say the least, but is at least a refreshing change from Hart's mealy-mouthing about how he wanted Grady Fuson to stay and how Grady just wanted to move on. Give Orel credit for having the balls to say that they thought Grady did a lousy job...

Laird on being demoted to AAA

2005-04-03T15:50:00.000-07:00

Evan Grant in the DMN has the following quote from Gerald Laird, on heading back to AAA:

"'I told them I'm a major league catcher,' he said. 'I don't deserve to go back to Triple-A. I thought I had answered the question of being able to play at this level last year. They gave me answers, but they didn't really seem like answers.' "

I can't say that I disagree with him. The Rangers' treatment of him has been pretty shoddy.

And those statements are likely just going to hasten his departure from Texas. He had already fallen out of favor, and publicly complaining about how he's being treated is simply going to put him further in the doghouse.

I expect him to be dealt relatively soon.

Roster finalized

2005-04-03T13:54:00.000-07:00

The Rangers' major league roster has been finalized, and there is one huge surprise...just a day after seemingly indicating that Laynce Nix had made the Opening Day roster, Nix was optioned to AAA, with Chad Allen taking his place on the major league roster.

I don't have a problem with that move, as Nix had struggled much of last year and all spring, and has only a couple of months above A-ball anyway. I thought he was rushed last season, and having him play everyday in AAA is probably better than having him hit .220 in irregular playing time in the majors. Allen provides a righthanded bat off the bench, something the Rangers did need with Gonzalez making the team as the everyday DH.

This highlights again, though, the holes in the Ranger lineup...in both centerfield (with Gary Matthews Jr.) and at catcher (with Rod Barajas), the Rangers are starting guys who are not major league caliber everyday players, and at DH (Adrian Gonzalez) they have a guy who had a decent, but not great, season with the bat at AAA in 2004. For all the talk about what an offensive powerhouse the Rangers are supposed to be, this could end up being a bad offensive squad, particularly if Kevin Mench or Mark Teixeira miss significant time to injury, as they have in the past.

The other roster moves of note...Adrian Gonzalez did make the team as the DH, Mark DeRosa is the utility infielder, and Chad Allen is the 5th outfielder. Matthews is the only centerfielder on the roster, and he isn't a very good defensive centerfielder, which presents a problem, but I imagine Mench will play centerfield from time to time, with Dellucci manning left field against certain righthanded pitchers.

The eight man pen will be:

Cordero
Brocail
Bukvich
Regilio
Riley
Shouse
Mahay
Dickey

Astacio, Ramirez, Francisco, Benoit and Colbrunn are all on the D.L. to start the season. Almanzar has been put on the bereavement list, due to the death of his mother. Astacio will be activated before game five, Almanzar will probably only miss a couple of games, and Bukvich and Regilio will be sent down when those two are activated.

To make room for Chad Allen and Mark DeRosa, the Rangers have designated Travis Hughes and Agustin Montero for assignment. Neither should have been on the 40 man roster to start with, and both should make it through waivers, although Hughes will be able to opt for free agency, as this is his second outright assignment.

Joel Sherman with more Soriano rumors

2005-04-03T11:25:00.000-07:00

In today's NY Post, Joel Sherman reports that the Devil Rays backed out of a Soriano trade that would have sent Soriano to the Devil Fishes in exchange for Danys Baez and Jorge Cantu, citing financial reasons.

The Soriano for Baez part of the deal has been floating around for a little while, although Cantu's inclusion is new. Cantu is a 23 year old second baseman who had a breakout season in 2004, hitting 23 homers between AAA and the majors while doubling at a Kinslerian rate. While Baez and Cantu is a better return for Soriano that Baez alone, I'm still not sure that deal is all that attractive. Cantu doesn't walk and doesn't have any speed, and his defensive skills are considered just adequate. In BA's D-Rays prospect chat this offseason, they claim Cantu would have been ranked in the 6-10 range among D-Ray prospects if he hadn't been disqualified by all his major league ABs late last season, and while the D-Rays have a pretty nice farm, that's not where a top level prospect would end up slotted. Cantu can play some short and third, so he could slot in as a utility player with some pop off the bench, but he's another guy who is going to have to hit .300 to have an acceptable OBP, and Kinsler appears to still be the better option at second base if Soriano were traded.

Cantu would appear to have the most value as a trade chip later on, but that assumes that he doesn't pull a Nivar and regress in 2005...Baez, meanwhile, is another power arm for the pen, but if Francisco returns relatively quickly (and the team is apparently quite pleased with his progress, expecting him to return in a month or so), the pen starts getting pretty crowded, unless the Rangers deal Almanzar or cut Doug Brocail loose.

So I'm not sure that this deal would do a lot for the Rangers, other than get Soriano out of town and clear space for Kinsler. Sherman predicts that Soriano will get dealt to St. Louis mid-season, and I'd probably rather take my chances going that route. Sherman also, for what it is worth, predicts that Mark Teixeira (along with Adam Dunn) will come close to 60 homers this year...

The Guardian's MLB preview

2005-04-02T20:16:00.000-08:00

I found this amusing...it is the Guardian's "Baseball: Season 2005/6 preview."

For those who aren't familiar with the Guardian, it is a prominent left-wing British newspaper. Kind of funny seeing a Brit analyze the coming MLB season, although I have to say, the story has more style than any American sports column I've read lately...

Nix makes the big club

2005-04-02T20:00:00.000-08:00

Despite rumblings that he was going to be destined for AAA, Laynce Nix has made the 25 man roster, although whether he'll be platooning with Gary Matthews, Jr., or working as the primary starter is still up in the air.

It never should have gotten to the point where his place on the team was even in doubt, but Nix was abysmal in the second half of the season, and followed that up with a poor spring, which, combined with Andres Torres' strong performance this spring, led some to believe that Nix may be headed to AAA (which he skipped on his way to the majors).

Nix, though, apparently keeps his hold on the centerfield job, while Adrian Gonzalez has won the starting DH role. This, however, puts the Rangers in a situation where David Dellucci is looking at very little playing time...since he's a lefty, like Gonzalez and Nix, he can't really platoon with either of them.

The Rangers would probably be best served dealing Matthews for something, and having Torres as the 5th outfielder, allowing Dellucci to fill the 4th outfielder role.

Ric Renner on Fox Sports Net

2005-04-02T11:33:00.000-08:00

I'm watching FXSW while waiting for the Ranger game to start...

And Ric Renner showed a graphic of the Rangers starting lineup, that had "Bob Barajas" hitting 9th at catcher.

Great proof-reading, guys...

On the pen

2005-04-02T08:09:00.000-08:00

In the S-T today, T.R. Sullivan updates the injury situation with the pen. Brian Shouse apparently had a good session yesterday and looks ready to start the season on the active roster, but Erasmo Ramirez is continuing to have problems, meaning he's likely to start the season on the D.L.

With Pedro Astacio starting the season on the D.L. as well, the Rangers have been planning on going with an eight man pen for the first four games, sending one of the relievers down to AAA before game five, when Astacio would be activated. According to Sullivan, Cordero, Almanzar, Brocail, Mahay, and Riley have bullpen slots, and Shouse will be #6. Dickey is listed as just a candidate, but I'd be shocked if he weren't in the pen, which makes seven. That leaves Nick Regilio, Ryan Bukvich, and Vladimir Nunez fighting over the last spot. Nunez has impressed in camp, but Sullivan notes that Nunez is hampered by not being on the 40 man roster, and I doubt the team is going to want to clear a roster spot for Nunez since he's just going to be sent down after four games. Bukvich seems to be the favorite for the last spot, as I would guess management would like to see Regilio in the Oklahoma rotation.

Also, Sullivan indicates that Agustin Montero is the one who will be dropped from the 40 man roster to make room for DeRosa. It is about time...

LeBreton takes on the Rangers

2005-04-01T08:07:00.000-08:00

Gil LeBreton has a column today on the Rangers' spring...

What makes it particularly interesting is that LeBreton tends to be one of the least inflammatory of the columnists in DFW...he's not a Galloway or a Fraley, or even a Reeves, in regards to his willingness to be openly critical or hostile to local management.

So his column today is striking...he seems, quite simply, disappointed with what has happened this spring with the Rangers, and in particular, with several of the same decisions management has made that I, and other fans, have been carping about...

In regards to Ricardo Rodriguez, he writes:

For all the talk, for instance, that the Rangers' front office placed on giving its young arms a complete chance this spring, its pitching rotation to start the season will include Chan Ho Park and Pedro Astacio, not to mention 40-year-old Kenny Rogers.

Two lousy outings by Ricardo Rodriguez in his final two spring training starts apparently has erased everything he did before that and earned him a demotion to Triple A Oklahoma.

Why? In part, because Rodriguez had options remaining, and Park and Astacio are being paid more and, thus, will get the longer chance.

I had said, from the time Astacio was signed, that he was a lock for the rotation. Nevermind that the last time he was effective was in 2000 -- which was also the last time Rusty Greer and Albert Belle were good players -- nevermind that he missed most of the last two seasons to injury, nevermind that we had Juan Dominguez and Ricardo Rodriguez and Chris Young waiting in the wings...Astacio was in the rotation, and the young pitchers would just have to wait their turn.

This got me flamed from various quarters, and was used as evidence that I am anti-management and simply refuse to give management a fair shot. If Astacio can't pitch, I was assured by many, he'll be released, and RicRod or someone else will be in.

Well, Astacio has been injured and awful this spring. And he's starting the season on the D.L., but only so the Rangers can have an extra roster space for the first four games. Come game five, he's being activated, and will get the start...and will no doubt have at least a half-dozen outings to prove, once again, he can't pitch.

Meanwhile, Ricardo Rodriguez will be back in AAA, his reward for having worked hard all winter to rehabilitate his broken arm, his prize for having been praised throughout camp for being in great shape and pitching so well.

The problem with sending RicRod down, ultimately, is that a decision has to be made on him pretty quickly. Either he's going to be in the Ranger rotation for the next couple of years, or he needs to be cut loose. And I'm afraid we are looking at a scenario where Astacio hangs around, tweaks something, goes on the d.l. for a couple of weeks, comes back, and is essentially ineffective all season...

Meanwhile, Rodriguez doesn't join the rotation until June, has some ups and downs, and at the end of the season, we still don't know whether he can be counted on to be a part of the 2006 rotation. And why? Because of management's infatuation with a washed-up starter, and their refusal to actually put their lineup card where their mouth is and let some of the young pitchers they are supposedly developing pitch.

One other great tidbit from LeBreton's article, on Mark DeRosa:

DeRosa also prompted Hart to make one of his best quotes ever -- "He's done everything except have a good spring."

I thought that was pretty amusing...

DeRosa added to the 40 man roster

2005-03-31T18:39:00.000-08:00

The Rangers have apparently added Mark DeRosa to the 40 man roster.

This pretty much guarantees that he'll be the utility infielder this season, and that Ian Kinsler will start the season in AAA. Both those moves are the right thing to do, although you could definitely make the case that Marshall McDougall is more deserving of the utility infield job than DeRosa.

The Rangers are going to have to clear a spot on the 40 man to make room for DeRosa. Joaquin Benoit could be put on the 60 day D.L. or DFA'd...otherwise, Travis Hughes or Agustin Montero seem like the most likely candidates to get axed.

Greg Colbrunn, who will be starting the season on the D.L., apparently is not a candidate to get axed, as Hart announced that his roster spot is not in danger.

I just don't get it...Colbrunn has been hurt and unproductive the last two years, was awful this spring, and yet gets added to the 40 man anyway and has a secure spot while he sits on the D.L., waiting for his wrist to get better.

Makes no sense...

BP's A.L. predictions

2005-03-31T17:16:00.000-08:00

BP's A.L. predictions are out, with their staff voting on divisional races, MVP, Cy Young, and the like.

Interestingly, the Rangers, while being picked to finish 3rd on average, were picked by the individuals to finish in every place from first to fourth in the A.L. West. Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock got strong support in the MVP predictions (and Teixeira seems to be the hot "dark horse" MVP choice around the country), and Kinsler was the 4th choice in the ROY race.

Ben Davis clears waivers

2005-03-31T13:29:00.000-08:00

Catcher Ben Davis was waived by the ChiSox, and has apparently cleared waivers. If he doesn't accept an assignment to AAA, he becomes a free agent.

He's someone I wouldn't mind taking a look at. Supposedly has pretty decent defensive skills, although his hitting skills seem to have regressed. He's 28, though, and has a .242 career EQA...he's a better backup catcher than Alomar Jr., among others.

The Transaction Oracle on the Riley trade

2005-03-31T07:27:00.000-08:00

The Oracle thinks Riley and Nivar both are pretty valueless...

Blalock on his 2nd half struggles...

2005-03-30T20:31:00.000-08:00

The DMN with a piece on Hank Blalock's second half struggles last year...

Blalock seems to lay the blame on getting worn down as the season went on, and on pitchers taking advantage of his overaggressiveness at the plate. The latter issue is one that it seems will likely make Blalock vulnerable to some slumps over his career...he's one of those batters who, when he is going well, jumps on the pitcher early in the count. Pitchers pick up on that and stay away from the strike zone early on, and Blalock tends to get over-aggressive, flailing at pitches out of the zone, or the ones that Grady Fuson refers to as the "bitch pitch", the strike that you want to let go by early in the count because even if you make contact, you aren't going to make good contact.

You'd like to see Blalock strike a balance, working the count to draw a healthy number of walks while still retaining his natural aggressiveness, even though the two seem to be largely incompatible. But it is encouraging to see Blalock acknowledge the source of his problems in the second half of last year, and be realistic about what he needs to do to improve and continue to get better.

BA on the trade

2005-03-30T19:16:00.000-08:00

Baseball America's analysis of Riley and Nivar...

2005 Diamond Mind projects

2005-03-30T19:09:00.000-08:00

The 2005 Diamond Mind season projections are out...

The DM season projection has the Rangers finishing last in the A.L. West, but with an 80-82 record.

The issues they identify are the obvious ones...the Rangers were luckier (or more efficient) than average last season, in terms of runs scored and runs allowed based on individual components, and W/L percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed. The DM folks have issues with the Ranger starting pitching, and the best starter, Ryan Drese, has peripherals that suggest that repeating his 2004 success may be difficult. And no one of note, other than Richard Hidalgo, was added this offseason.

DM has had a hard time projecting Texas lately...after several seasons of projecting a record over .500, only to see the Rangers vastly underperform, last season DM projected the Rangers to lose 90 games, and the Rangers did much better than expected.

Interesting analysis, with the understanding that everything is based on statistical projections and modeling...

Juan Gone hurt again...

2005-03-30T18:46:00.000-08:00

Juan may not be ready for opening day...

Yes, I know, I'm sure you are all as shocked as I...

BP on Matt Riley

2005-03-30T12:50:00.000-08:00

In their Triple Play segment a few days ago, BP talked about Matt Riley being on the trade block. Given that he's now a Ranger, their analysis is worth checking out...

Rangers trade Nivar for Riley

2005-03-30T12:24:00.000-08:00

The Rangers have apparently dealt OF/2B Ramon Nivar to the Orioles for LHP Matt Riley and veteran minor league catcher Keith McDonald.

Rumblings about the Rangers picking up Riley have been going on for a while, and I've got concerns about whether Riley is a good fit here, given that he's a flyball pitcher who walks a ton of guys and gives up homers...a bad combination for TBIA.

But he's a lefty who throws hard and was once a top prospect, and he should be able to fill the last spot in the bullpen until Francisco is ready to return. He's a worthwhile player to take a flyer on if he doesn't cost much, and by getting him for Nivar -- whose future is as a utility man, at best, and who was a questionable use of a 40 man roster spot -- the Rangers have made a very nice move.

This is really a no-downside move by Texas...Riley can work out of the pen and provide depth for the rotation while the injury situation with the pitchers sorts itself out, and Hershiser can see if he's salvageable. If he gascans here, you put him on waivers and try to slide him through and stick him in AAA, and you've lost little as a result. If he can turn it around, you've got an arm with a ton of upside that you picked up almost for free.

Nivar broke out in 2003 by hitting for a huge average in AA and AAA, but he's got no power and no plate discipline, and his baseball instincts are reportedly very poor, meaning that even though he has a ton of speed, he isn't a good basestealer or defensive outfielder. McDonald is a journeyman minor league catcher, who will caddy for Laird in AAA.

Very good acquisition for Hart & Co. here.

Sullivan on Laird

2005-03-30T10:16:00.000-08:00

T.R. Sullivan has a piece on Gerald Laird today in the S-T.

Not surprisingly, Laird talks about how he's had to deal with the frustration of knowing he was heading back to AAA, after winning the job last season in spring training. Apparently, management is a little happier with his attitude over the past two weeks and the way his coming to terms with it.

Interestingly, Sullivan flat-out says that Laird had no chance of winning the starting catching job this spring, something that I had suspected was the case, given the statements made by John Hart this winter.

I still strongly believe that the organization has handled this situation very poorly...but hopefully, Laird will get his starting spot back soon enough...

The Colbrunn situation

2005-03-29T22:24:00.001-08:00

Greg Colbrunn's wrist problem has flared up again. This is the same problem that cost him most of the last two seasons, according to Todd Wills in the DMN...
The parallels between the Colbrunn situation and the Astacio situation are interesting...both are guys who have missed most of the last two seasons with injuries, who were added to the 40 man roster despite there not appearing to be any other teams interested in giving them a major league deal, who have been awful this spring, who are struggling with injuries again, and yet seem to be guaranteed spots on the 25 man roster.
I don't get it.

Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez make the Opening Day roster

2005-03-29T07:41:00.000-08:00

According to T.R. Sullivan in today's S-T, Chris Young's performance yesterday was enough for him to nail day a spot in the starting rotation, beating out Ricardo Rodriguez for the last open slot.

RicRod could still end up on the major league roster, either in the bullpen as a middle reliever with Frankie Francisco on the shelf, or as the #5 starter if Pedro Astacio isn't healthy to start the season. I'd just as soon see the team cut bait with Astacio, who hasn't pitched well for several years and has had problems this spring, but they still seem as committed to plugging him in the rotation as they did when he was signed.

Gonzalez sticking as the DH is an interesting twist, as well, one that I touched on a couple of days ago. Colbrunn's awful spring, and the acknowledgement by management that he just isn't swinging the bat well right now, opened the door for Gonzalez, and he's apparently walked on through. The challenge for him is going to be to continue the progress he's made into the season, particularly since there doesn't appear to be a legitimate righthanded compliment on the bench, with Colbrunn on his way out.

Baseball Toaster : The Griddle : Preview Week: American League Preview

2005-03-29T07:00:00.000-08:00

Baseball Toaster : The Griddle : Preview Week: American League Preview

Soriano to the Rays rumor

2005-03-28T19:05:00.000-08:00

The St. Pete Times today mentions a rumor that the Rangers were willing to talk about parting with Alfonso Soriano in exchange for reliever Danys Baez.

I have a hard time believing there is much merit in that...Baez was acquired by Hart when he was with the Indians, and the Rangers want to dump Soriano, but I think they'd want a bit more in return...

Revo with a lovefest for Alomar

2005-03-28T11:46:00.000-08:00

Jim Reeves' column today is a big lovefest about the character of Sandy Alomar, Jr., and the leadership he provides...

Too bad Alomar can't play anymore...

On Adrian Gonzalez and spring training stats

2005-03-27T21:04:00.000-08:00

Over at U.S.S. Mariner, there is a great discussion on spring training statistics. In particular, the fact that spring training statistics are largely irrelevant, but spring training performance is not, and the key in evaluating players in the spring is differentiating between the two.

One of the thing that any stathead will tell you is that the reliability of statistics is directly related to sample size...the more data you have to work with, both from the player you are looking at and his peers, the better you can evaluate his performance based on the numbers. The less data there is however, the more important observation and other subjective measures become in evaluating a player. For example, if I were given one game in a vacuum, and had to decide who the best player on a team was based on that one game, I'd be more inclined to trust my eyes than the box score, since anyone can go hitless or have a 3 for 4 game. But as the sample sizes increase, the objective data increases in reliability, making it less necessary to rely so heavily on the subjective.

Which gets us to spring training, where there are two data problems. First, you are talking about only a handful of ABs...for example, the other day, someone was lamenting that they were hoping that Gerald Laird would come into spring training and be hot with the bat, forcing the Rangers to give him the starting catcher job, but that a .250 average wasn't going to get it done. The problem is, though, that at the time, Laird was 7 for 28, barely a week's worth of ABs over the course of a season. Two more hits, and he's got a .321 average, and everyone is talking about how well he's hitting this spring. Anyone who has seen "Bull Durham" remembers Kevin Costner's drunken diatribe, about how one hit a week -- "a bleeder, a gork, a groundball with eyes" -- is the difference between being a major league regular and a bush leaguer. What he says is absolutely true, and highlights the sample size problem with baseball, since difference in a couple of extra bleeders or gorks or groundballs with eyes in the spring is the difference between a .250 hitter and a .320 hitter, and can be the difference between a player heading North and getting shipped out if a manager or G.M. gets to fixated on that data.

Along with the sample size problem, you also have players facing a huge variety of players in the spring...one candidate for a job could be facing mostly major league pitchers in his outings, while another is facing minor leaguers, and a couple of #3 starters who were throwing only breaking pitches to try to get ready for the start of the season. This makes comparing statistics from player to player in the spring much more problematic.

What Derek Zumsteg and Dave Cameron point out, though, in the U.S.S. Mariner piece, is that while spring training statistics shouldn't carry a lot of weight -- particularly in comparison to historic performance -- spring training performance is worth keeping an eye on, since a player who has spent the winter developing a new pitch, or who has gained some strength and power, or who, conversely, has lost a step, can reasonably be expected to have a larger deviation from their historic performance than would be expected. The key, of course, is differentiating between who has legitimately improved their performance, and who is simply on a hot streak.

Where this really becomes relevant for the Rangers is in regards to Adrian Gonzalez, whose torrid spring has the team considering him as their starting DH this season, rather than going with the planned Dellucci/Colbrunn platoon. The putrid performance of the D/C combo this spring, particularly in light of Colbrunn's lack of playing time the past couple of seasons, no doubt plays a role, as well, but Gonzalez has seized the opportunity and has put himself on the map with his play.

Now, I've spent the winter loudly disagreeing with those who have said that Gonzalez should be a candidate for the DH role in 2005, based on the fact that 1) his defense at 1B is one of his greatest attributes right now, and playing him at DH wastes that, and 2) he's not going to hit for enough power to be a productive DH. And at this point, Gonzalez's power, or lack thereof, is the biggest issue with him as a prospect, since how his power develops is going to be the largest factor in determining whether he's going to be the next Rafael Palmeiro (as his proponents suggest he can be) or the next Rico Brogna (as his detractors, including myself, suggest he'll become).

Scouts have felt that Gonzalez has the swing and the body where he can develop power, but it is one of the latest skills to blossom, and for some players, it simply never comes (see, e.g., Sean Burroughs). Gonzalez, however, has shown that missing power stroke this spring, and that is what has gotten him into contention to be the DH.

This is where the spring stats/spring performance differentiation becomes crucial...the fact that Gonzalez is slugging .678 or whatever it is right now is no reason to make him the DH this season. That is, in my mind, almost irrelevant. However, if Gonzalez has gotten bigger and stronger over the winter, if his approach at the plate has improved, if he has made real strides towards becoming the player that scouts thought he could become when he was the first overall pick of the draft, and if this represents a real, permanent improvement in his ability...if that is the case, then he should probably be the DH for the Rangers in 2005.

Again, though, the rub is in making the determination as to whether this is a real leap in ability, versus a hot streak...and that's the decision that Showalter, Jaramillo, and the rest need to make.

Juan Gone wins Indians starting RF job

2005-03-27T19:38:00.000-08:00

The legend of Juan Gone continues...

Juan beat out Grady Sizemore for the starting right field job (although Sizemore would have been in center field, had he stuck)...Jody Gerut, though, should be back from injury before too terribly long, so once Juan gets hurt, they'll have other options.

I should start up a pool on when Juan will strain something and end up on the d.l.

Ryan Drese to start Opening Day

2005-03-26T21:57:00.000-08:00

After weeks of mystery, the Rangers have finally announced their Opening Day starter, and it is going to be Ryan Drese.

It is the logical move...the only two real candidates are Drese and Kenny Rogers. Drese was better last season, and has been stronger this spring, including going 6 solid innings today.

But Buck is big on respect and deferring to veterans, which made Kenny the slight favorite...however, Rogers' slow recovery from the flu allows them blame his illness for sliding him back, rather than it being a sign of disrespect, and he'll apparently start the home opener.

Slowing down Danks

2005-03-26T14:07:00.000-08:00

The DMN notes column today indicates that John Danks, who has been slowed this spring due to a "slight groin injury", is likely going to end up at high-A Bakersfield to start this season, rather than AA Frisco, as management had hoped.

Frisco already has six candidates for the five rotation spots, although John Hudgins, whom the DMN mentions as one of the candidates, should probably be at AAA anyway.

As for Danks, this may be a blessing in disguise...he was one of the youngest players in the California League last season, and had a rough go of it against high-A batters. John Sickels, for one, mentioned that he thought he had been rushed, and it seems like sticking Danks in AA, less than two years after he graduated from high school, and when he hadn't shown the ability to handle high-A yet, would be moving Danks along way too fast.

Hopefully, Danks can go to Bakersfield, show he can handle the California League, and move up to Frisco sometime in June or July.

On Torres, Nix and the centerfield situation

2005-03-26T10:06:00.000-08:00

I did a lengthy post this morning inspired by the S-T article by T.R. Sullivan indicating that Andres Torres had forced himself into contention for the 4th outfielder/CF platoon role.

But then Blogger ate it, and it disappeared...but the Cliff Note's version...

1) While my initial reaction was that Buck and Hart were overreacting to a strong spring by Torres, having looked at it more closely, I think it is a worthwhile idea.

2) Torres' minor league performance suggest he can be a Gary Pettis-lite type player, a guy who will give you zero power, but defense, speed, and enough walks to make his OBP respectable. And that is something that has value, given the makeup of the Ranger roster.

3) Nix maybe should have been in AAA last year, and he might be better served by going back down and playing every day and getting his offense going, rather than continuing to struggle in the majors.

4) If the Rangers could flip Matthews for something of value, and keep Torres as the 4th outfielder instead, I think that would be a smart move.

My Fantasy Baseball draft

2005-03-25T19:03:00.000-08:00

Last night, we had the FBL in draft in my "primary" fantasy league, which consists of various and sundry Rangers fans from cyberspace. It is a 17 team roto-style league, 6X6, using OBP, slugging, homers, RBIs, steals, and runs scored on offense, and wins, saves, IP, ERA, WHIP, and Ks for the pitchers. 21 players -- 12 offensive positions, 9 pitchers, no bench.

I've been competing in this particular league since 2001, and have never won, but have finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th...not bad, considering there are generally at least 16 teams. This year, though, I'm as pleased with my draft as I've been with any of my drafts ever, and so I thought I'd run through it with everyone...

1st round -- Albert Pujols. Surprised he was there. I was going #2 overall, and was expecting to see Pujols go first, which would have left me choosing between ARod and Bobby Abreu. But ARod went #1, so I took Pujols.

2nd round -- Adam Dunn. Like a lot of statheads, I think he's got a great chance to break out, and his low batting average is irrelevant since we use OBP, and Dunn is always solid there. For the #33 overall pick, I thought this was a great bargain.

3rd round -- Vernon Wells. I didn't feel great about this pick, but I needed a CF (we use a LF/CF/RF/OF format for the 4 outfielders), and I think Wells should rebound and have a season closer to 2003 than 2004. But I didn't really like anyone else on the board that much -- Rivera, Prior and Garciaparra went immediately after Wells -- and I figured if I was going to reach for a "position" pick, it was going to be Wells at CF, rather than Garciaparra at SS or Kent or Giles at 2B, because I had a couple of sleepers in the middle infield I was more willing to wait for. So I held my nose and took Wells.

4th round -- Lance Berkman. One of the problems with having a very early (or late) pick in a serpentine draft with a lot of teams is that your second pick in the back-to-backs are more difficult, since you have a bunch of players (30, in this case) going off the board between choices. In this case, I saw a lot of guys disappear that I had flagged as possibilities, but Berkman slipped to me, and I just couldn't pass him up. Yeah, he's going to spend the first few weeks of the season on the D.L., but he's also a top-10 fantasy player when healthy, and with him sitting there at #67, I had to take him. I thought he was a terrific value there.

5th round -- Mike Lowell. Like Wells, a pick I didn't feel great about, but there was an early run on third basemen, and Lowell is a solid contributor, so I pulled the trigger, rather than have to poke around after the likes of Chone Figgins or Corey Koskie.

6th round -- Jeremy Bonderman. My first pitcher, and chosen much earlier than I usually take starters...my strategy is generally to load up on offense early, and get some middle of the road starting pitchers late in the draft. But Bonderman fits the profile of pitchers I like for fantasy purposes -- strikeout guy in a pitcher's park -- and like Dunn, he's someone who seems poised for a breakout, particularly given how well he pitched late last season. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go Oliver Perez or Johan Santana on the league this season...this was a high-risk, high-reward pick, but one I felt very good about.

7th round -- Larry Walker. Much like Berkman, a guy who will put up good numbers, but in an unknown number of ABs. He'll probably only get 450 ABs, but he'll put up good runs scored and RBI numbers in the Cards lineup, and will produce enough when he's not on the d.l. to make him a good value pick at #104.

8th round -- Khalil Greene. I had targeted Greene and Bobby Crosby at shortstop, and with Crosby going in the 7th, I figured I needed to jump on Greene. Another guy I see as being a legit candidate for a breakout season, someone who looks ready to establish himself as a top-tier shortstop, after a solid fantasy season in 2004.

9th round -- Mike Cuddyer. This prompted much groaning from folks, who apparently had targeted him as well. The beautiful thing about Cuddyer is that he qualifies as a second baseman, and he's finally going to play everyday in the hitter-friendly Metrodome. An 800 OPS from a second baseman is a steal in the 9th round...

10th and 11th rounds -- Odalis Perez and Adam Eaton. Interesting juxtaposition...I'm not a big Perez guy, but I've always loved Eaton, and been disappointing that he hasn't had more success. But like Bonderman, they are guys in pitcher's parks who should put up good strikeout numbers, and I seem to end up with Eaton in at least one league every season...I don't want to miss out when he has his 2004 Ben Sheets season.

12th round -- Craig Wilson. Great value pick here, I thought. It would be even better if he qualified at catcher, but now that he's finally playing every day in Pittsburgh, I looked at him as a steal when he dropped to #203.

13th round -- Andy Pettitte. Like Perez, I've always thought Pettitte was a bit overrated, but coming back from his arm problems, if he's healthy, he's a steal in the 13th round, and is one of the type of high-risk/high-reward pitchers I want to target in this range.

14th and 15th rounds -- Glendon Rusch and Jorge Julio. Our league requires you to fill three RP spots, and Rusch and Julio both qualify. Rusch had a decent season in the Cub rotation last year, and should start off there this season, while I want to see if Julio ends up re-claiming the closer role in Baltimore.

16th round -- Trot Nixon. A guy who should put up good numbers, even sitting against lefties. Got buried in the Yahoo rankings because of his injury last season, and slipped. Great value pick there.

17th and 18th rounds -- Brandon Backe and Tony Armas. Armas is a guy who, like Eaton, I always seem to end up with. If he can give me a few healthy months, he's worth an 18th rounder. Backe should stick in the Houston rotation this season, give me innings and some wins with a decent ERA and WHIP.

19th round -- John Buck. I needed a catcher. He was the best one left. Less than a 50% chance he's still on my roster come June 1, but I'll give him a shot.

20th round -- Wily Mo Pena. A guy who qualifies at CF, and he'll get playing time if Griffey or Kearns get hurt, which means he'll get playing time. Lousy OBP, but provides steals, homers and slugging. Basically a late-round flyer on a guy who has a chance of putting up huge numbers, and a much better chance of not reaching 400 ABs.

21st round -- Cliff Lee. He was on the board. I needed a starter. I think he's better than he pitched last season.

So that's it. I need to try to deal for a closer or two, and as always, my starting pitching will probably get churned, but I'm very happy with my draft. I'm quite optimistic about the coming fantasy season...

A few Friday morning notes

2005-03-25T09:48:00.000-08:00

From the S-T today...

Astacio missed his start today, with a strained groin, but apparently is still going to make the rotation, although the Rangers are hedging their bets by leaving open the possibility that he'll start a minor league game instead of a major league game in his next start, which would allow him to go on the D.L. retroactively. I'd still rather see them cut bait with Astacio, and go with RicRod and Young in the rotation, but that looks exceedingly unlikely...

After all the hit batters the other day, things are apparently getting increasingly pissy between the Rangers and A's, with Ranger bench coach Don Wakamatsu and A's manager Ken Macha getting into a yelling match before yesterday's game, and a dispute arising over where the Rangers were taking BP. With the whole Bueno/Francisco fiasco last year, and the fallout from that, along with the all the games that will be played between the two teams this season, the Texas/Oakland dynamic is primed for a real rivalry to develop, something we haven't had for quite some time. I wouldn't mind at all, seeing some bad blood develop between the two teams...it would make the coming season a lot more interesting...

Finally, Frankie Francisco is apparently going to start the season on the D.L. This would seem to open up a spot for Joaquin Benoit, if he's healthy, Erasmo Ramirez, or the loser of the Chris Young/Ricardo Rodriguez battle for the last spot in the rotation. Montero, Bukvich and Hughes are all on the 40 man roster, but if any of them -- particularly Montero or Hughes -- are pitching in other than an emergency situation, there's a huge problem.

The Hardball Times with a State of the Rangers piece...

2005-03-24T22:29:00.000-08:00

A lengthy, well-thought-out piece at Hardball Times on the Rangers...

They aren't big fans of the direction the team is heading...

Braves claim Bourgeois

2005-03-24T08:12:00.000-08:00

As expected, Jason Bourgeois didn't make it through waivers, being claimed by the Atlanta Braves.

I figured someone would grab him. He's not a great prospect, but he's still young and had a terrific season in 2003, making it rather inexplicable that the likes of Travis Hughes, Agustin Montero, and Ryan Bukvich were kept on the 40 man roster instead of him.

I know that the stock response from Ranger management would be that the H/M/B trio are more likely to contribute this season than Bourgeois, but that isn't really the point. If we need any of those three this season, we're going to be in trouble anyway. Those types of players can be found on the waiver wire at any point in time. There's no reason to have them around so they can throw a half-dozen innings out of the bullpen in a pinch, if it means losing someone like Bourgeois.

And that seems symptomatic of the management mindset right now...Kozlowski was supposedly dropped because he wasn't going to pitch in the majors in 2005. Danks and Diamond are being rushed because management wants them in Arlington quickly. The focus is on finding guys who can help now, rather than nurturing the farm to develop players who are going to help a couple of years down the road.

It wouldn't be such a big deal, if we had a $90 million budget and were geared to win now. But this is a .500 team right now, one that isn't likely to compete until 2006 or 2007, and even then, is going to need contributions from the farm system to succeed. A team can afford to trade or lose its minor leaguers if, like the BoSox and Yankees, it is spending lots of money on the major league team to keep it a playoff contender. But for a team with a small-market payroll, like the Rangers, to foolishly give away prospects so that they can protect the Agustin Monteros and Travis Hugheses, as a misguided insurance policy for the bullpen, indicates a lack of long-term planning by the front office.

Van Benschoten

2005-03-23T18:56:00.000-08:00

Back in January, when John Van Benschoten was diagnosed with a torn labrum that would sideline him for the season I suggested that the Pirate pitching prospect -- who was considered an elite outfield prospect, as well, when he was drafted -- should DH this season, given the high attrition rates of pitchers coming back from labrum tears.

Today's Ask BA fields that very question, but Jim Callis seems to be coming at it from the wrong angle. He dismisses the possibility, suggesting that the risk of further injury was too great to make it worthwhile for him to DH. But Callis appears to be ignoring the possibility that, given the labrum injury, Van Benschoten's prospects might be greater now as a hitter than as a pitcher, which would make the possibility that he'd delay his recovery on the mound somewhat moot.

I still think that the torn labrum jeopardizes Van Benschoten's future on the mind sufficiently that the Pirates should seriously consider returning him to the field. The guy hit 31 homers in college in 2001, and could salvage a career as an outfielder if he can get his stroke back.

Five things from CBS Sportsline

2005-03-23T18:12:00.000-08:00

CBS Sportsline has their "five things to know" segment on the Rangers up...

Of course, #1 about the supposedly potent offense, even though the catcher, centerfield, and DH positions are likely going to be problematic, and two of the big bats they mention -- Alfonso Soriano and Richard Hidalgo -- are pretty big question marks...

The do acknowledge the strength of the bullpen, though, pointing out that the pen ERA was third in the majors and first in the A.L. They also mention that the team will be wearing black armpatches this season with "26" on them, in memory of Johnny Oates...

Changes to the blog coming

2005-03-23T15:44:00.000-08:00

Just a note to let folks know that there likely will be some changes coming to this blog in the relatively near future...

Content-wise, I expect there to be little or no difference. It will still be me writing, updating just as often, and being just as antagonistic towards management and stats-oriented as always.

There will be some cosmetic changes, though, along with a new URL, as the Texas Rangers blog will be joining an affiliation of baseball bloggers, including some very talented folks whom I'm proud that I'm going to be associated with.

The changes should be in place by Opening Day, and I hope when the time comes, everyone will follow us over to the new site...

Vince Sinisi's jacked-up arm

2005-03-23T13:52:00.000-08:00

Wow...a chilling story about the staph infection that almost ended Vince Sinisi's career this winter.

A reminder that what seem like simple, straightforward injuries aren't always that simple...

Reeves on Soriano

2005-03-23T10:37:00.000-08:00

Jim Reeves with a column on Soriano today...

He's defending Soriano, claiming not to know what all the fuss is about, but his basis for thinking that Soriano is going to produce this year is 1) Mike Young thinks he's fine, 2) he's a high pick in a lot of fantasy drafts, and 3) he hit .280 with 28 homers last season.

I've already expressed my opinion on Soriano, and I'm not going to re-hash it here, but this is a really superficial look at the Soriano problem.

Gascanning

2005-03-22T18:11:00.000-08:00

From today's box score...

Travis Hughes, 1 1/3 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 K, 1 homer, 1 HBP, 2 ER
Agustin Montero, 1 1/3 IP, 4 hits, 2 walks, 0 Ks, 3 ER
Ryan Bukvich, 1 1/3 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 1 K, 1 HBP, 3 ER

All three of these guys came into camp as very questionable uses of 40 man roster spots, and all three have been awful thusfar this spring.

Update on Soriano contract situation

2005-03-22T13:09:00.000-08:00

On Sunday, I mentioned that the Rangers should consider releasing Soriano, saying that the Rangers would only have to pay him $1.5 million if they did so.

I did this based on my understanding of arbitration-eligible player contracts, derived from this Baseball Primer piece from a couple of years ago. It says in part:

A player with a non-guaranteed contract or an arbitration award may be released up until the 15th day of spring training with 30 days' pay or from the 16th day of spring training until the opening of the season with 45 days' pay.

My reading of that included arb-eligible players who settled pre-arbitration. However, Jamey Newberg, who knows this stuff better than me, thinks that it applies only to players who go to an arbitration hearing, which would not include Soriano.

He's going to check the rules tonight, and confirm one way or the other, and I will update this whenever I find out for sure...

On RicRod

2005-03-21T17:46:00.000-08:00

Hosannas for Ricardo Rodriguez, in the wake of his 5 inning, 0 run, 6 K, 1 walk performance yesterday. Mark Teixeira called it the best performance from any pitcher this spring, and Buck is saying that RicRod's lost time due to injury last year and over the winter is a non-factor now.

Good to see, and hopefully RicRod will force his way into the rotation. I'm not counting on it -- I still think he'll end up in AAA to start the season -- but he needs to pitch in the majors, and pretty quick.

Rosenthal's 2005 A.L. predictions

2005-03-21T17:29:00.000-08:00

Ken Rosenthal offers his 2005 A.L. predictions...

Mark Teixeira is his pick for home run champ, and Alfonso Soriano the biggest name to be traded before 7/31. Both of those are quite reasonable choices...

The weird choice, to me, was Matt Clement as free agent bust of the year. Clement seemed to be one of the better signings this offseason...with Jaret Wright, Troy Percival, Magglio Ordonez, and Carl Pavano all in the A.L., Clement seems like a pretty far-fetched choice to be the f.a. bust of this season.

Oh, yeah, and some third baseman in New York was his pick for MVP...

Why Soriano shouldn't DH

2005-03-20T20:38:00.000-08:00

It has been suggested that, given the trainwreck which is Alfonso Soriano in the field -- especially this spring, with his hamstring giving him fits -- the Rangers should make him a full-time DH.

There's a problem with that, though.

Here are Alfonso Soriano's splits last season.

Against righthanders, he hit .284/.319/.471. He's hit .283/.317/.493 against righties for his career.

If the Rangers go with a platoon at DH in 2005, David Dellucci is going be the lefthanded part of the platoon.

Against righties last season, David Dellucci hit .254/.354/.472. For his career, Dellucci has hit .272/.352/.441 against righties.

Dellucci, both last season and over the course of his career, is a better hitter against righthanders than Alfonso Soriano is.

So if you are going to have Soriano at DH, he isn't going to play everyday...just against lefties.

Which means we are paying $7.5 million for a guy who will DH about once every three days.

Quite honestly, I'd rather the Rangers release him, pay him the $1.5 million they'd owe him for releasing him before the season, and use the $6 million saved to pay towards Cliff Floyd or Mike Sweeney.

Cordero pitches

2005-03-20T20:26:00.000-08:00

Francisco Cordero pitched an inning in a minor league game on Sunday, giving up a homer and a single and striking out two in an inning.

No problems reported, which is good news...he appears to still be on track to start the season, which is critical, given that he was possibly the MVP of the team last season. If the Rangers are going to have any success this season, they need another big season from the pen, and Cordero has to be a big part of that.

Rosenthal's Inside Dish

2005-03-20T20:14:00.000-08:00

Ken Rosenthal's Inside Dish today has a couple of Ranger tidbits.

He has praise for Ian Kinsler, saying that he could force his way into the starting lineup at 2B and allow the Rangers to trade Alfonso Soriano for starting pitching help. The problem with that scenario is that it assumes that Soriano could be traded for starting pitching help...I think, if the Rangers could get a starting pitcher for Soriano right now, he'd already be gone.

Rosenthal also suggests that Adrian Gonzalez could have Mark Teixeira moving to the outfield next season, but hints that Teixeira would balk at such a move...

My prediction on Shawn Chacon

2005-03-20T15:08:00.000-08:00

I don't know if I've already mentioned this or not, but I want to make sure I'm on record with my prediction that the Rangers will pick up Shawn Chacon before the season starts. Probably for John Hudgins, or Gerald Laird.

Why Chacon?

Because I think the Rangers don't want to go into the season with two young starters in the rotation, and I think they don't want to go into the rotation with Park in the rotation.

I think they'd like to get someone via a trade, such as Chacon, and go into the season with a rotation of Rogers, Drese, Chacon, Astacio, and either Ho or Young.

I think they -- specifically, Hicks and Hart -- are terrified of the idea of starting the season 11-19 or something like that, and losing all the momentum they got from last season, and having the fans lose interest by June 1. You'd also have the fans screaming again about John Hart being here, Randy Galloway and Jim Reeves and the like writing snide columns about the do-nothing offseason and the highest-paid G.M. in the game doing nothing to improve the team...

I think management thinks that by having some established mediocrities in the rotation like Chacon and Astacio, it makes it less likely that they'll get blown out of the A.L. West race early, they can limp along at .500 until the ASB, and sell more tickets.

I don't think the front office thinks that this team is going to be a playoff contender, but I think they are extremely afraid that going with Rogers, Drese, the Ho, and a couple of kids will result in a bunch of early blowouts, the team getting buried, and attendance going into the tank, and this is a way to try to keep that from happening.

So I expect that we'll see Chris Young and Ricardo Rodriguez (who went 5 shutout innings today, with 6 Ks and just one walk) start the season in AAA, while Astacio, Chacon and the Ho hold down the #3 through #5 slots in the rotation.

And I expect that that will set the Rangers back a couple of months, as time that should be used evaluating guys like RicRod and Young will instead be used seeing if Astacio's shoulder can hold up for six innings.

My thoughts, elsewhere on the web

2005-03-20T14:55:00.000-08:00

Sports Fan Magazine asked me to share my thoughts on the coming Rangers season, in a Q&A segment that can be found here.

Bloggers around the internet are doing similar pieces for their teams for SFM, with the links to their Q&As at the top of the Rangers Q&A.

Check it out...

2005 Ranger preview -- Third Base

2005-03-20T12:43:00.000-08:00

It says a lot about Hank Blalock that his 2004 season -- where he put up a .269/.355/.500 line with quality defense at age 23 -- was considered to be something of a disappointment. A season where he put up a .283 EQA, had the 9th-highest VORP among major league third basemen, and was actually getting to face lefties for the first time was seen as a letdown. And I have to admit, I'm one of those who was disappointed.

Blalock has only himself to blame for these expectations, of course. A third round choice in 1999, Blalock was solid, if unspectacular, his first two seasons before exploding in 2001, tearing up the Florida State League and the Texas League, and earning himself recognition as one of the top 5 prospects in baseball by just about every entity that does prospect rankings. I remember watching him in 2001, in a series against Round Rock, and coming away very impressed with Blalock...despite being one of the youngest players on either team, he carried himself like a veteran, and hit the ball hard every time he came to the plate. Since then, he's been one of my favorite players, a guy I pull for more than just about anyone else.

After backsliding a bit in 2002, he rebounded impressively in 2003, earning an All-Star berth despite being one of the youngest regulars in the majors, and announcing his presence on the national stage with authority by homering off of Eric Gagne to give the American League the victory in that game. He ended the season with a .300/.350/.522 line, and was heralded as a budding star, the next great third baseman.

And it looked like he was taking that next step in 2004, starting the season hot, and going into the All-Star break with a 941 OPS, before falling apart in the second half, posting just a 743 OPS after the break, including a miserable July that saw him post a .190/.296/.330 line.

Despite the second-half slump, I'm not worried about Blalock for 2006. He's mechanically sound at the plate, has hit at every level, and I expect him to keep getting better. Even against lefties, believed to be his Achilles heel, he managed a respectable .282/.344/.436 line last season. And while he's been knocked for being unable to hit on the road, his home/road splits last season show that his extra-base hits, walks, and strikeout rates were similar at home and on the road last season...while he had a large split in OPS between his home and road performance, it was almost all attributable to his having 20 more singles at home. While Rangers hitters are almost always going to hit better at home than on the road, due to TBIA being such a tremendous hitter's park, the power and K/BB ratios suggest that the home/road differential for Blalock last season isn't something to be overly concerned about.

I'm expecting 2006 to be a consolidation year for Blalock, a year where he solidifies his position as an elite third baseman. While there were comparisons to George Brett when Blalock was coming up, the two guys who I see as being most comparable to Blalock are two active third basemen -- Eric Chavez and Scott Rolen. Blalock isn't quite at the level of Chavez defensively, and neither Chavez nor Blalock are close to Rolen with the glove (Rolen may be the best defensive third baseman since Brooks Robinson), but particularly offensively, they are very similar players...guys who should hit for average, draw a lot of walks, and hit for good power, while not being 40 homer guys. And Chavez and Rolen, like Blalock, burst on the scene very early, played very well, and then were perceived as mild disappointments because they didn't show a huge improvement in their early 20s.

I'm expecting Blalock, over the next three or four years, to perform like Chavez and Rolen at a similar age did, putting up EQAs in the .290s, with flashes that suggest that he could be doing a lot more. The George Brett comparisons early in Blalock's career may have put unreasonable expectations in everyone's mind, but the bottom line is, even if he never gets any better than he is now, he's still a very good player. And with the Rangers having locked him up with a five year deal before the 2004 season, we can expect to see him manning the hot corner for the Rangers for some time to come.

Rangers reassign three players to minors

2005-03-19T17:15:00.000-08:00

The Rangers sent three players to the minors today...Jason Standridge, Wilfredo Rodriguez, and Justin Hatcher.

None of them were going to make it on the 25 man roster, and as it stands, there are still 44 players in camp, which is an awful lot to have still hanging around this close to the start of the season, particularly when the 25 man roster is, other than one or two spots, already pretty much set.

Evan Grant chat session

2005-03-19T16:51:00.000-08:00

Evan Grant hosted a chat session at the DMN website on the Rangers Friday...

Among other things, he picks them to finish 2nd in the A.L. West, thinks Chris Young will get the 5th spot in the rotation, and thinks that OBP isn't a priority for this management group in constructing a team...

On Gerald Laird

2005-03-19T16:28:00.000-08:00

An AP piece on Gerald Laird, and how he not only lost his starting job when he got hurt, but is getting sent back down to the minors.

From the article: "We made the decision we're going to let Rod do the bulk of the catching," general manager John Hart said. "With the job he did last year, he deserves it."

Given that Barajas was a pretty mediocre catcher last year -- and was abysmal after the All-Star Break -- I'm not sure how the job he did means he deserves the starting catching job.

I still expect Laird to be packaged with John Hudgins for a starting pitcher in the next week to ten days.

Long-term extension for Lance Berkman

2005-03-19T14:18:00.000-08:00

The Astros sign Lance Berkman to a 6 year, $85 million deal.

That gives us the minimum that Mark Teixeira will be looking for in a couple of years, in terms of a long-term deal.

And it also means that there are no marquee free agents that will be on the market this offseason...Berkman is the only player in the 2005-06 offseason I would have wanted the Rangers to break the bank on.

John Sickels chat

2005-03-19T14:15:00.000-08:00

Chat session from two days ago on BP with John Sickels, the prospect maven who wrote for ESPN for quite some time.

Has some thoughts on Adrian, Botts, Kinsler and Arias...

Alomar retires

2005-03-19T11:53:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately, it is the wrong Alomar.

Recall that Robbie Alomar, who is retiring, was a Ranger offseason acquisition target, as well.

With any luck, his brother Sandy Jr. will follow him into retirement in a matter of weeks.

LeBreton with a puff piece on Mike Young

2005-03-18T13:09:00.000-08:00

Gil LeBreton had a column on Mike Young yesterday, and the opening sentence rubbed me a little wrong:

Michael Young is fast becoming the best shortstop a lot of people have never heard of.

I guess LeBreton went with that because it is a catchy intro, and plays into the whole "lack of respect" thing that the Rangers seem to want to thrive on...but it doesn't seem to match reality.

Young was an All-Star last season. He got a ton of publicity of succeeding He Who Shall Not Be Named at shortstop for the Rangers last year. He was generally credited, locally, as being the team MVP, even though Mark Teixeira was probably more worthy. The Baseball Tonight guys fawned over him all season, with John Kruk calling him the league MVP at one point?

So who are all these people who haven't heard of Mike Young? Even most casual fans know who he is.

It doesn't really matter, but it seems that too often journalists try to downplay the recognition level or notoriety of certain players, as if the player somehow should get even more credit if he is underrated.

And besides, if there's a "best shortstop a lot of people have never heard of", it is Mark Loretta -- more obscure than Young, and a better player the last couple of years.

More thrilling Ranger news

2005-03-18T07:48:00.000-08:00

Evan Grant says this morning that "R.A. Dickey hasn't been counted out" for the 5th starter job...

So we could have a rotation to start the season of Rogers, Drese, the Ho, Astacio, and Dickey, while Juan Dominguez, Chris Young, and Ricardo Rodriguez -- the young pitchers who might actually contribute to a Ranger playoff team in a couple of years -- head back to AAA.

Sullivan's Barajas piece

2005-03-18T07:30:00.000-08:00

A depressing article from T.R. Sullivan today, celebrating Rod Barajas's "defense, clutch hitting and leadership," and claiming he's "entrenched" at starting catcher for the Rangers, while Laird is heading back to AAA.

Barajas is a sub-par defensive catcher, and he can't hit, in the clutch or otherwise. I can't speak to his leadership, but I have a hard time believing it makes him for the fact that he isn't a good player.

A follow up to the Observer/Hart article

2005-03-17T12:50:00.000-08:00

Many thanks to Taylor, who in the comments portion of my previous entry on the Observer's John Hart piece linked this article from last spring, by the same author.

Taylor excerpted several choice tidbits, which I'd encourage everyone to check out...

A sympathetic view of John Hart

2005-03-16T18:25:00.000-08:00

From the Dallas Observer, a lengthy, sympathetic piece on John Hart suggesting he's been unfairly criticized by the Dallas media and sports fans.

As with a lot of Hart supporters, the writer is basically criticizing the critics, rather than defending Hart (although he seems to think Hart deserves praise for not trading away Melvin's young players who are now the core of the team).

Astacio, Colbrunn, and veteran goodness

2005-03-16T10:00:00.000-08:00

According to T.R. Sullivan in the S-T today, even though Greg Colbrunn and Pedro Astacio are on the 40 man roster, they aren't guaranteed spots on the Opening Day roster, and still have to earn their way onto the team.

And if you believe that, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you...

LeBreton column on Ricardo Rodriguez

2005-03-16T08:35:00.000-08:00

Pretty good fluff piece on Ricardo Rodriguez by Gil LeBreton today, celebrating RicRod's return from injury, and talking about how well he's been throwing this spring.

I still don't think he has a chance at a job out of spring training, but if/when Astacio or the Ho go down, he should get the call to join the rotation...